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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Flaneur)
Maggie Mahar had the courage to take a look at what was behind all of this religious belief in markets. Clearly I do not understand how she was able to work as a journalist when she has the attitude and mindset of a truth-seeker. I spent some time looking at the difference between her book and Lowenstein's: not even possible to start comparing. One needs to be a trader to value her work.
Read this book now; wait a while then read it again.
In Bull!, Maggie Mahar tells the sweeping tale of the Great Bull Market of 1982–1999, a legendary run-up that pulled the entire nation into its gravitational field. Mahar lays out the origins of the boom and takes the reader behind the scenes, on Wall Street, on Main Street, and in Washington, letting him see the story through the eyes of the fund managers, market gurus, analysts, politicians, business journalists, and 401(k) investors who, together, helped create the longest-running bull market in U.S. history. Some were touts; others were true believers.
On the sidelines, a Greek Chorus of seasoned professionals tried, vainly, to describe the emperor's new clothes. Filled with colorful portraits of many of the central figures of the boom years -- Alan Greenspan, Henry Blodget, James Cramer, Abby Joseph Cohen -- Bull! draws together a complex cast of characters, illuminating the web of relationships that kept the market aloft. More than a financial history, Bull! is a lively, often witty social history of the stock market that became a part of popular culture.
It is also the tale of individual investors, which chronicles the intimate stories of ordinary people -- housewives and college professors, salesmen and waitresses -- who got caught up in the excitement and then watched their life savings drain away. How did it happen that the very real risks of investing in stocks were forgotten? Mahar explodes the myth of "stocks for the long run," explaining how the market's promoters crunched the numbers to create the illusion that if an investor stays in the casino just a little longer, he is guaranteed to come out a winner. Casting Warren Buffett in a new light, she explains how a value investor is, in the end, a long-term market timer who understands that success depends on how much you pay when you get into the market -- and when you get out.
By putting the bull market of 1982–1999 in a larger historical context, she shows how, over time, longtime bull markets beget longtime bear markets. The future defies prediction, but the history of financial markets makes one thing clear: markets always revert to a mean. Taken as a single story, Bull! is both an illuminating history and a cautionary tale about investing. Analyzing the economic and psychological forces that drive financial cycles, Mahar shows how an extraordinary influx of cash and credit, combined with the obsessive attention of a new financial media, created a cult of equities.
Challenging the notion that stocks always outperform all other investments, she reveals why many of Wall Street's most experienced investors believe that the 21st-century investor needs to throw out the old rule book and make a new beginning as he plans for his financial future. No investor should keep his or her money in the stock market without first reading this book.