Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of American Grand Strategy

Richard Hanania argues that although the US president makes foreign policy largely in response to political pressures, it is concentrated interests that set the incentives under which he and other senior officials act. He singles out three groups as the most likely to wield influence: foreign governments, government contractors and the national security bureaucracy. A public choice perspective, he contends, explains the central features of American foreign policy better than a theory of grand strategy, from the war on terror to China policy and the placement of US forces abroad. He says leaders are picked to answer to public opinion, not necessarily for long-range planning, and mass attitudes on foreign affairs are easily swayed owing to ignorance, secrecy and complexity.

Marc Andreessen described it as a sobering new look at how democratic governments really make decisions.