The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

Historian Paul Kennedy surveys the leading powers of the world from 1500 to 1980 and asks why they rose and why they declined. His thesis is that a great power's standing, measured against its rivals, depends over the long run on its economic resources, and that states whose military commitments outgrow their economic base face the threat of overstretch and relative decline. He treats wars in the context of economic change, arguing that how a power develops in peacetime matters as much as how it fights. Published in 1987, it closes with forecasts for China, Japan, the European Community, the Soviet Union and the United States.

James Mattis included it on the list of favorite books in an appendix to Call Sign Chaos.